98+% (or, Probability Matrices and the Race for the Presidency)

I just spent the better part of the last hour playing around with a few of the 'electoral prediction' web pages. From my understanding, the information used to determine the probability of a state voting a certain way is compiled from recent polling data. Most of the pages seem to use a determination factor that allows states with wide margins of support for a particular candidate to always swing towards their preferred candidate, whilst the the swing states are an entirely random factor using the range of marginal errors in the polling data.

Most of the pages are rather concrete in the electoral maps they provide. The only one that seems to have any constant change is the one at http://www.270towin.com/simulation/. They allow you to run the simulation repeatedly and maintain a database of the last 1,000 simulations available for view. At present, they've produced the lowest probability for an Obama win... at 98.1%.

Now, the 98% range seems to be the common number, ranging from the .1 of 270towin's to around .6 on some other sites. Mind you, this is in the 'if an election were to happen today' case. There are any number of events that could change the outcome.

However, given the above information, which is readily available to anyone who can use a search engine, one has to wonder about the McCain campaign's recent strategy decision. With only 30 days to go until the election, now is not the time to start assaulting the character of your opponent. Certainly, the "Swift Boat" tactic worked against Kerry, but that started early in the campaign and was left virtually unchallenged. The amount of time and media coverage it was given allowed it to play a role in swinging the vote to the Bush. A mere 30 days, however, is not enough time for any sort of negative campaigning to work... not when your opponent has a commanding lead.

Mind you, I'm more liberally-minded, so I'm not against an Obama win. I'm simply of the opinion that now would be the time for the McCain faction to push their plans and policy proposals, focusing on their merits while establishing the concrete fallicies in Obama's. An attempt to drag Obama through the mud at this late hour comes across only as a tactic of desperation... a clear sign that the McCain campaign is in serious jeapordy.